Everyone is well aware that Medicare is in trouble. But it is not clear that everyone realizes just how serious it is. The 2009 report by the Trustees of the Medicare program spotlighted the most visible sign of distress, projecting that it would be insolvent in a mere eight years. But it is possible, and likely, that Medicare’s troubles will persuade Congress to increase the payroll tax deduction a bit, cut some expenses here and there, and thus put off insolvency for a few years. The long-term cost projections are another story, not so easily dealt with: a rising number of elderly coming into the program accompanied by a parallel rise in the cost of treating them.

In today’s post, Muriel Gillick, a geriatrician at Harvard, sketches a clear picture of that troubling future, but offers a glimmer of hope. Our colleague, Polo Black Golde, lays out the sometimes startling cost projections for a variety of conditions afflicting the elderly.

—Daniel Callahan and Susan Gilbert, editors